Leading in Uncertain Times

We are wired to fear change and uncertainty, especially when it is out of our control.

In fact, many people feel overwhelmed by change. A recent GlobeScan survey, conducted with 29,565 people across 31 countries, found nearly 78% agreeing “the world is changing too quickly for me.”

As organizations and teams navigate intense change, leadership matters more than ever. Leading through change and uncertainty is now a leadership mandate.

To do this, leaders need to cultivate specific tools, mindsets and skills to help their teams and organizations. To do this, I believe they need to build and exercise capabilities around transparency, courage and empathy.

The current rate of technological change alone is dizzying. My grandparents were born before mass adoption of radio, television, computers and highways. They would be stunned to see same-day shipping, Netflix and mobile phones.

The arc of my career has been shaped by transformational change driven by technology.

In my time at Amazon, I saw the digital revolution shake the foundations of industries and companies. It upended retail, newspapers, music, travel, financial services, traditional advertising and much more. The revolution still unfolds today.

Even as the digital revolution continues, the next wave of disruption is here with AI, bringing new fears, uncertainties and opportunities. This may be the biggest, most profound technological change in our lifetimes.

AI’s long-term impact on work and humanity is unknown. Near-term, AI is triggering significant layoffs as big tech companies restructure for an AI-powered world. Many people question what their career looks like in this new world.

At the same time, AI offers great promise. New roles, new business models and new companies are emerging. AI extends human capabilities in astonishing ways. As a techno-optimist, I am hopeful.

This is the moment we live in.

AI is the latest example of humanity being catapulted forward by innovation that creates disruptive change. We celebrate the inventions of Gutenberg, Edison, Ford, Einstein, Job, Bezos and now Altman (ChatGPT). But many of these innovations were disruptive in their times.

This puts us in tension with ourselves. We celebrate invention and benefit from it while at the same time being overwhelmed by the change it creates. When our institutions are shaken by change, it is deeply disorienting.

Change feels different depending on where you sit.

Working at a disruptor like Amazon is akin to witnessing the invention of fire. In my time at Amazon, I got to see Prime, the Kindle, streaming video and AWS when they were just ideas.

It also was not easy.

Working at Amazon felt like barely controlled chaos. The pace was ferocious. Daily, we dealt with the immense ambiguity of inventing. We reorganized every six to twelve months. Working at a disruptor is not for the faint of heart.

But the alternative is worse.

When you are the incumbent in an industry being disrupted, it is deeply unpleasant. Orderly and familiar worlds are rocked by change. Playbooks no longer yield expected results. The doom spiral can be precipitous: declining revenue and profits, failed strategic pivots, restructuring, down-sizing, acquisition or bankruptcy.

Two kinds of change, both hard.

It raises the question: How can we be intentional in our approach to change and in building skills and mindsets to cope with it?

When I face great change, I try to think about what is not changing, what remains constant.

For example, the primacy of serving customers. In my view, this is constant, regardless of what is changing. Customer-centricity is a winning formula and the right thing to do. It anchors me in ambiguous moments. Stay focused on your customer.

I try to be curious. Curiosity offers a helpful counterbalance to the deep anxiety that comes with rapid change. I try to reflect on: “What are the hidden opportunities to learn and grow? How might I serve my team and the organization in this moment?”

In addition, in times of uncertainty and change, we need to anchor ourselves and recharge.

I do this in the mountains. Immovable, rugged, indifferent, timeless, awe-inspiring. During the heart of the pandemic, my wife and I spent every week in the mountains. They offered renewal. They were our salvation. As you cope with change, find your anchor, the place that helps you reset and put things in perspective.

There are three mindsets that I believe are critical for leading amid change and uncertainty.

Transparency is first. When uncertainty is high, our minds naturally fill the vacuum with scary thoughts. It is easy and natural to imagine the most undesirable scenarios. Leaders can help by communicating frequently and transparently, even when part of the answer is “I don’t know.” Transparency builds trust.

The second is courage. Not stiff upper lip, superhero courage. But courage where you persist even as your heart races and palms sweat. Courage that comes with the vulnerability of wondering where you fit in a changing world. Courage that includes admitting you don’t have all the answers.

Along with courage, we need a heightened sense of empathy. At a time when AI replicates some human capabilities, empathy is uniquely human.

If you are overwhelmed, your colleague or neighbor is likely overwhelmed. How can we find commonality in that? How can we show generosity and grace to the people around us? How can we do small things every day to be helpful, even if simply a kind word or expression of gratitude?

We live in times of uncertainty and change. They are likely to persist and even accelerate. The AI revolution alone is enormous. We need to cultivate tools, mindsets and skills to help us and the people around us. Leaders must step up.

Moments of intense change challenge us but also offer opportunities to serve in new ways, learn about ourselves and support the people around us.